We all know the narrative for the restaurant industry in 2024. Food costs up. Labor costs up. Traffic down. Operator morale challenged. Yet one area has been standing tall during the tumult: off-premises.
Victor Fernandez of Black Box Intelligence
“It’s been bucking the trend of what’s happening in the rest of the industry,” said Victor Fernandez, vice president of insights and knowledge for Black Box Intelligence, in an interview about its latest data report. “While all segments have been seeing negative comp sales, delivery is positive. It continues to grow regardless of the slowdown in sales.”
One might think this is simply an outgrowth of post-pandemic consumer habits. And that’s not wrong. But it’s not the whole story.
“If you look at the data from before the pandemic, every year from 2016 on saw a larger percentage of consumption being off-premises,” Fernandez said. “This trend is not something that Covid created; it’s something that Covid accelerated.”
Covid may have given off-premises a push, but it’s pedaling on its own now.
“Delivery growth for limited-service restaurants was 8.3 percent,” he said. “It’s a really strong side of their business despite the overall slowdown in sales.”
Even full-service restaurants, which has been more resistant to sending their ritzier meals out the door, are embracing it.
“We’re seeing more of those sales dollars coming through delivery,” said Fernandez, noting that comp growth reached positive territory in Q3.
This isn’t to say that we have entered Valhalla in the world of delivery and takeout.
“When you look at guest sentiment, it’s more negative for off-premises than dine in,” Fernandez said. “Wait times are a factor, expectations around those wait times are a factor, order accuracy, cold food. There is still room to improve the experience for the guest and to make the experience seamless for operators.”
But Fernandez remains optimistic.
“We expect to see more off-premises growth in 2025,” he said.
