The tariffs are here. Us with Canada, China, and Mexico, them with us. Will they create havoc for operators, who may need to absorb commodity cost increases? Maybe. Brizo FoodMetrics is helping operators move with the times.
Brizo FoodMetrics gathers analytics from more than 2 million food-service establishments and feeds them into a price shock and tariff simulator, which measures the impact of tariffs on prices. It serves as sort of a Richter scale for restaurants. That was a big one. That was a small one.
Trevor Shimizu, co-founder and CRO at Brizo FoodMetrics
“We can select certain ingredients, put a shock change in there, and see how prices are going to change,” said Trevor Shimizu, co-founder and chief revenue officer at Brizo FoodMetrics, in an interview.
The model uses machine-learning and AI tools to update prices per dish, allowing users to model various scenarios and find out what their post-shock profit margins will be. It considers ingredient breakdown, cost ratios, ingredient volume. The model makes concessions for whether an operator is a chain or an independent, since those supply-chain relationships can vary. “We use near real-time data to help brands understand their environment,” he said.
For a sense of the scale of the tariffs, consider Canada. In 2023, the U.S. imported more than $40 billion worth of Canadian agricultural products; canola oil alone accounted for $4.8 billion. Roughly $1.6 billion of frozen potatoes came from up north. Brizo’s data shows that 379,000 U.S. establishments includes fries on their menus. “Do you want fries with that?” may turn into “Do you want to take out a short-term loan with that?” if tariffs really take a bite.
Potatoes and canola oil and Canada is just one example. There are others: avocados from Mexico, shrimp from China.
Shimizu is hearing concern from operators. “It’s almost like a ‘what’s next?’ type of conversation,” he said.
His company is responding to operator anxiety by going further with its offerings. Along with its price shock and tariff simulator, it is developing a tariff-vulnerability index, which will deliver a comprehensive risk assessment. It will analyze several variables, including menu data, historical price data, demographic data, geographic data, and tech-stack data. A lot of data. And recommendations.
“All the businesses know they need data,” Shimizu said, “but the question is how do they take action on it? Our new index will help operators run through scenarios so they’re not on their heels and having to scramble to catch up.”
One thing is certain: no one knows what will happen with tariffs in the future. There’s already speculation of negotiations between countries. But whether the tariffs end up being short term or long term, Brizo will remain a partner to operators.
“We don’t know where everything is going but we will help restaurants be prepared,” he said.
