A flood of simultaneous input cost pressures has persisted throughout 2026 and has not fully receded, shaping the United States catering landscape amid shifting demand across market segments, according to VantaInsights market research updated September 9.
The VantaInsights industry report found that the catering market outlook is largely dependent on three relatively unstable variables: corporate event volumes, social event spending and the trajectory of food costs.
Wholesale food prices on average saw a 0.1 percent decline in August and 1.3 percent in July, extending a slight reprieve in costs that totals a 1.7 percent drop since last August, according to September 10 data from the National Restaurant Association.
Despite the moderate decline in wholesale food costs over the last 12 months, the Producer Price Index for All Foods remained more than 33 percent above its February 2020 reading. And although overall prices have fallen recently, the NRA reported that not all commodities have shown this trend, with producer prices for eggs, fats and oils, confectionery materials, prepared seafood, and flour on the rise, making pricing relief relatively contingent on a restaurant’s menu mix.
U.S. catering industry revenue reached $16.1 billion, per VantaInsights’ research, displaying nominal growth since 2020 that narrows fairly significantly when adjusted for persistent inflation. Additionally, employment hasn’t kept pace with revenue growth, indicating the catering operator structure is evolving toward smaller, leaner firms.
The NRA’s 2026 State of the Restaurant Industry report found restaurant operators are forecast to add more than 100,000 jobs this year, reflecting an industry facing a mixed economic landscape, with operators facing uneven traffic and higher operating expenses while consumers’ budgets are increasingly less padded.
The latest U.S. Census Bureau Patterns report shows that the total number of catering establishments has grown every year since 2019, even amid employment declines, reaching 13,222 in 2023.
While the catering market overall had bounced back starkly since pandemic-era lows, corporate catering recovered more slowly than social catering, according to VanataInsights.
