U.S. alcohol sales at restaurants are undergoing a flood of converging trends. Americans are drinking less than ever, but alcohol-fueled operations like pubs and bars are expected to see a compound annual growth rate of nearly 7 percent through 2033.
Meanwhile, legislative battles pertaining to the off-prem sale of alcohol are taking place at the state level across the nation. Although the approach originally represented a lifeline during the shutdown-stricken years at the start of the decade, proponents now view off-prem alcohol as a critical revenue channel for the sector.
Off-prem alcohol
More than 35 states began easing restrictions on off-prem alcohol sales for bars and restaurants during the shutdown-stricken years of the COVID-19 pandemic at the start of the decade. Since then, 30 states and Washington, D.C., have enacted laws permanently allowing to-go cocktails, according to a May 26 report from the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States.
While legislators have spent the last several years ironing out off-prem alcohol laws in state capitols across the nation, 2026 is proving a pivotal year for the topic.
Cocktails to-go gained permanent legal status in Illinois July 1 after receiving unanimous support from the State Senate and passing the State House 104-6. Similarly, off-prem alcohol laws have been loosened in parts of Maryland, including in jurisdictions like Baltimore County, effective as of this month, with broad support from state lawmakers.
“My district boasts some of the most globally recognized restaurants and establishments in our state,” Illinois State Senator Sara Feigenholtz, chair of the Senate Special Committee on Tourism, said in a statement last October. “Cocktails to-go began as a lifeline, but the market is revealing good reason to make it permanent.”
Last month in New Jersey, representatives from both State Houses passed legislation that permanently loosens restrictions around the off-prem sale and delivery of alcoholic beverages; that legislation now only awaits the governor’s signature.
“During the pandemic, this commonsense policy helped restaurants survive one of the toughest periods in their history,” New Jersey State Senator and bill sponsor Declan O’Scanlon said in a June 30 release. “Several years later, customers still appreciate the convenience, and restaurants, breweries, wineries and distilleries continue to benefit from the added revenue. If a policy works for businesses, consumers and our economy, there’s no reason to take it away.”
The future of off-prem alcohol sales remains less certain in states like North Carolina and California.
In North Carolina, the State House and Senate have not reached an agreement on an omnibus bill with broad changes to alcohol laws, including off-prem sale regulations.
In California, to-go cocktails received temporary pandemic-era regulatory relief in early 2020, followed by a more than five-year extension in late 2021, currently set to expire on Dec. 31.
Alcohol trends
Americans are consuming alcohol less than ever, according to 2025 Gallup Data. Still, the U.S. alcoholic beverage market is forecast to grow by more than $265 million between last year and 2033, according to projections from Grand View Research.
Gallup’s 2025 data found 54 percent of Americans reported drinking alcohol, down four percent from 2024 and eight percent from 2023. Last year’s alcohol consumption rates among U.S. adults marked a new low, falling below the previous 1958 record-low of 55 percent.
Following a short-lived boom after the COVID pandemic, alcoholic beverage makers blame a slump in alcohol demand on the combination of surging living costs, changing consumer habits, broad health concerns and the rise of weight-loss drugs, according to June 11 reporting from Reuters. In a 10-year forecast spanning 160 markets, research firm IWSR projected alcohol consumption to continue to fall until at least 2031.
Contrasting the idea that rising prices led to less indulgence in alcohol among Americans, Tastewise’s 2026 Food and Beverage Trend Forecast found that alcohol fits neatly into the “quiet luxury” spending category, offering sophistication, social connection and aestheticism during uncertain economic times.
Tastewise’s report found a 55 percent growth in cocktails on menus compared to the previous year. Cocktails make up about one-third of American alcohol consumption, having risen about 12 percent on average over the last two years to a median price of $13.91.
Although the U.S. alcohol scene is seeing shaky times relative to previous years due to a myriad of factors, the support of off-prem channels at state levels and bullishness of market forecasts indicate the segment continues to carry momentum into the end of the decade.
